Monmouth On The Bubble Part II: How The Hawks Stack Up Historically

March 2, 2016
Peter Solari Follow @4PeteSakeNY

"Monmouth on the Bubble" is a two part series examining the Monmouth University men's basketball team's rise to national relevance. Part I focused on the Hawks' move from the Northeast Conference to the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference in 2013, and the impact it's had on the program. Part II will analyze how the 2016 Monmouth Hawks compare to similar teams of the past, more specifically, mid-major programs who ultimately received at-large invitations to the NCAA Tournament. Statistics are courtesy of RealTimeRPI.

PART II: HOW THE HAWKS STACK UP HISTORICALLY

From where I'm sitting, the Monmouth Hawks have already done enough to secure their invitation to the NCAA Tournament, but my opinion isn't worth squat on selection Sunday. That's why the team can make life easy on themselves and their fans, by winning the MAAC tournament, which gets under way later this week in Albany, New York. Monmouth has clinched the league's regular season title along with a birth to the NIT at the very least. The Hawks will open the MAAC tournament against either Rider (12-19) or Quinnipiac (9-20) in Friday's quarterfinals. Monmouth enters the game winners of 11 out of their last 12 games.

Should something unexpectedly go wrong, and Monmouth is knocked out of the MAAC tournament early, the Hawks will instantly be moved to the proverbial "bubble," and in the process, will have subjected themselves to a week of agonizing uncertainty.

It's not easy to gauge a mid-major program like Monmouth as a "bubble team," especially this early in the game. The MAAC is only expected to get one team into the big dance this year, and the experts are projecting Monmouth to be that team. There isn't much talk of the Hawks' chances at an at-large bid because everyone is expecting them to win their league's auto-bid. But they don't call it March "madness" for nothing. What makes this time of year so much fun, is watching the improbable happening. Anything can happen on any given night, and Monmouth may land on the bubble sooner than later.

Monmouth is at a bit of a disadvantage because the MAAC holds their tournament so early. When the MAAC crowns it's champion, most other leagues' tournaments, including those of high-majors, will not have even started yet. If Monmouth doesn't win the MAAC, they will likely have to endure several shakeups to the NCAA Tournament field, while they wait to hear their fate on selection Sunday. And there's nothing they can do about it but sit and watch.

It really isn't that uncommon for a school to enter their conference tournament with no shot at making the big dance, only to go on a magical run to their league's auto-bid. Such a scenario happened in 2008 when Georgia was a league worst 4-12 in the Southeastern Conference (SEC) during the regular season, and ran through the field in March to "steal" the league's auto-bid. When things like that happen, teams such as Georgia ultimately shrink the NCAA Tournament field. At the end of the day, only 68 teams can make it, and now they've got to make room for a team like Georgia, too. If you're a fan of a team on the bubble, watching something like that can understandably Sitting on the bubble is a grueling process and should that come to fruition, it will be one of the longest weeks in every Monmouth fan's life. I say this from experience.

I was a student at George Mason in 2006. I was in the Richmond Coliseum when Hofstra knocked Mason out of the Colonial Athletic Association (CAA) tournament, just as I was in New York less than two weeks earlier, when Hofstra beat the then-#25 Patriots. Like the MAAC, the CAA holds their tournament earlier than most, so getting knocked out meant a week of waiting. That season, there was a lot of speculation that the CAA would be a two-bid league, but they had three potential candidates including UNC-Wilmington, who won the auto-bid, as well as Hoftsta and Mason. Side-by-side, Mason's and Hofstra's tournament resumes were pretty comparable, and Hofstra did have those two, big late-season wins over the Patriots. It was a nerve-wracking time to say the least. For most of the week leading up to selection Sunday, ESPN's bracketologist, Joe Lunardi, had the Patriots on the outside looking in. On selection Sunday morning, in his final analysis before the field was revealed, Lunardi prophetically moved Mason to one of the "last four in" the big dance. It was made official later that evening and the rest, as they say, is history.

Waiting on the bubble is a place no team, or fan, wants to be. However, when only 68 teams get in, it's will inevitably to some programs every year. If you're a fan of the Hawks, you should have full confidence in coach King Rice having his team ready to play in Albany. However, should they slip up, maybe we can put a few Hawks' fans minds at ease by comparing this year's Monmouth squad, to mid-majors of the past, who earned at-large bids, and made the most of their opportunities in the tournament. First we'll take a look at Monmouth's resume for the season.

2015-16 Monmouth Hawks: 25-6 (17-3 MAAC), RPI: 52, SOS: 177, Coach: King Rice, NCAA Tournament: TBD

Expected NCAA Tournament teams

Schedule Highlights:

W @ UCLA (RPI: 82)
W VS USC (RPI: 43) - Neutral site
W VS #17 Notre Dame (RPI: 30) - Neutral site
W @ Siena (RPI: 97)

W VS Siena (RPI: 97)

W @ Georgetown (RPI: 105)
L @ USC (RPI: 43)
L VS Dayton (RPI: 25) - Neutral site

Schedule Lowlights

L @ Canisius (RPI: 226)
L @ Army (RPI: 203)
L @ Manhattan (RPI: 229)

Summary

VS RPI Top 50: 2-2
VS RPI 51-100: 3-0
VS RPI 101-150: 4-1
VS RPI 151-199: 1-0
VS RPI 200+: 15-3

This is a very impressive schedule for a mid-major and kudos to coach Rice and his staff for putting it together. The problem for Monmouth, however, is that every one of their "quality" wins, has an equally unimpressive loss to match. If the Hawks had taken care of business in those three bad road losses, they would be a lock for the tournament, with a record of 28-3 (19-1 MAAC), with their only losses coming to Dayton, USC, and Iona (RPI: 106). If that were the case, they'd probably be in the top 25 right now. It's not all bad news for Monmouth. While RealTimeRPI only counts the games against Notre Dame and USC as "quality wins," the victory over UCLA in Los Angeles, should definitely work in the Hawks' favor, and the win at Georgetown is nothing to scoff at. Two wins against Siena doesn't hurt either. Altogether, Monmouth should have enough here to get a nod from the selection committee, but they're not a lock yet, because a lot could happen in the conference tournaments and the potential of a shake-up in the projected field. Monmouth failed to make life easy on themselves earlier in the year with some bad losses to bad teams. We'll see if they can avoid that this time around and win the MAAC's auto-bid. If they don't, it will be an interesting week at the Jersey Shore.

Now we'll take a look at some other mid-majors in recent history who got invited to the big dance, and took the country by storm. We'll go in reverse chronological order. All of these teams received at-large bids to the tournament, and came from mid-major conferences.

2012-13 Wichita State Shockers: 26-8 (12-6 Missouri Valley), RPI: 37, SOS: 91, Coach: Gregg Marshall, NCAA Tournament: #9 Seed.

NCAA Tournament teams

Schedule Highlights

W VS #12 Creighton (RPI: 24)

L @ Creighton (RPI: 24)
L VS. Creighton (RPI: 24) - Conference final

W @ VCU (RPI: 25)
W VS Iowa (RPI: 81) - Neutral site
W @ Air Force (RPI: 79)
W VS Southern Mississippi (RPI: 31)
W VS Northern Iowa (RPI: 83)

L @ Northern Iowa (RPI: 83)

W @ Indiana State (RPI: 72)

L VS Indiana State (RPI: 72)

W VS Detroit (RPI: 64)
L @ Tennessee (RPI: 59)

Schedule Lowlights

L @ Southern Illinois (RPI: 193)

Summary

VS Top 50 RPI: 3-2
VS RPI 51-100: 5-3
VS RPI 101-150: 6-2
VS RPI 151-199: 5-1
VS RPI 200+: 7-0

NCAA Tournament, #9 Seed (All neutral site games):

Round of 64 W VS #8 Pittsburgh
Round of 32: W VS # 1 Gonzaga
Sweet 16: W VS #13 LaSalle
Elite Eight: W VS #2 Ohio State
Final Four: L VS #1 Louisville

This probably isn't a fair comparison for Monmouth. Wichita State came out of a very good conference in the Missouri Valley. There was never any doubt that the Shockers, as well as conference-mate Creighton, were going to be a tournament and you can see why. When you have eight top-100 wins and only one bad loss to Southern Illinois, which really wasn't all that bad, anyway, you're going to get into the field of 68. Not to mention, the Shockers were somewhere between #15 and #23 in the top-25 poll for much of the season. All the work Wichita State put into the season only yielded them a #9-seed, so this just goes to show how unforgiving the tournament committee can be. Monmouth isn't fighting for a #9-seed anyway. Most projections (which assume Monmouth will win the MAAC tournament, putting their record at 28-6) have them more in the area of #11. A #11-seed would be a great accomplishment for the Hawks. #11s have been known to do some damage in the NCAA Tournament, as you will soon see.

2010-11 VCU Rams: 23-11 (12-6 CAA), RPI: 49, SOS: 85, Coach: Shaka Smart, NCAA Tournament: #11 Seed (First Four).

NCAA Tournament teams

Schedule Highlights:

W @ UCLA (RPI: 44)
W @ Wichita State: (RPI: 60)
W VS #25 George Mason (RPI: 24) - CAA Tournament

L VS George Mason (RPI: 24)

W @ Old Dominion (RPI: 20)

L VS Old Dominion (RPI: 20)
L VS Old Dominion (RPI: 20) - CAA Tournament

W VS Wofford (RPI: 109)
W @ UAB (RPI: 31)
W @ Drexel (RPI: 74)

W VS Drexel (RPI: 74) - CAA Tournament

L VS Tennessee (RPI: 33)
L @ Richmond (RPI: 41)

Schedule Lowlights:

L @ Georgia State (RPI: 223)
L @ Northeastern (RPI: 178)

Summary:

VS RPI Top 50: 3-6
VS RPI 51-100: 5-2
VS RPI 101-150: 2-0
VS RPI: 151-199: 1-2
VS RPI 200+: 12-1

NCAA Tournament, #11 Seed (All neutral site games):

First Four: W VS #11 USC
Round of 64: W VS #6 Georgetown
Round of 32: W VS #3 Purdue
Sweet 16: W VS #10 Florida State
Elite Eight: W VS #1 Kansas
Final Four: L VS #8 Butler

As someone who follows CAA basketball, I was actually quite shocked and impressed at VCU's resume in 2011. Like Wichita State in 2013, the Rams came out of very good league this year. The CAA was actually a three-bid league in 2011 as VCU was joined by fellow Virginia schools George Mason and Old Dominion. VCU put in some serious work in 2011 and they should be commended. Monmouth fans should also take notice of something about this team. The tournament takes a serious look at a candidates record against top-100 RPI teams. Top-100 wins add quite a bit of value to tournament resumes, and better yet, losses to top-100 teams won't kill either. Even wins against top-150 teams have value, though losses to them can be damaging too. In 2013, VCU was 8-8 against top-100 teams. This season, Monmouth is 5-2 against them, and 9-3 against top-150 teams. In those 12 games, only one of the Hawks' losses came to a team outside of the top-100. Furthermore, notice VCU's three losses to teams with RPIs higher than 150. Monmouth's bad losses are worse than VCU's in 2011, but this shows that bad losses aren't always hurtful as they may seem, because most other teams have them too. 2011 was the first year the field was expanded to 68 and VCU obviously benefited from that as they were sent to the First Four. If Monmouth was to obtain an at-large bid to the tournament, a First Four game might very well be in their future.

2005-06 George Mason Patriots: 23-7 (15-3 CAA), RPI: 27, SOS: 89, Coach: Jim Larranaga, NCAA: #11 Seed.

NCAA Tournament teams

Schedule Highlights:

W @ Wichita State (RPI: 19)
W VS UNC-Wilmington (RPI: 28)

L @ UNC-Wilmington (RPI: 28)

W VS Old Dominion (RPI: 66)

L @ Old Dominion (RPI: 66)

W VS VCU (RPI: 81)

W @ VCU (RPI: 81)

W @ Manhattan (RPI: 86)
W @ Northeastern (RPI: 89)

W VS Northeastern (89)

W VS Hampton (RPI: 284)
L VS #18 Wake Forest (RPI: 84)
L VS Creighton (RPI: 41)
L @ Hofstra (RPI: 22)

L VS Hofstra (RPI: 22) - CAA Tournament

Schedule Lowlights:

L @ Mississippi State (RPI: 113)

Summary

VS RPI Top 50: 2-4
VS RPI 51-100: 6-2
VS RPI 101-150: 2-1
VS RPI 151-199: 2-0
VS RPI 200+: 11-0

NCAA Tournament, #11 Seed (All neutral site games):

Round of 64: W VS #6 Michigan State
Round of 32: W VS #3 North Carolina
Sweet 16: W VS #7 Wichita State
Elite Eight: W VS #1 Connecticut
Final Four: L VS #3 Florida

Here is a team that is pretty comparable to this year's Monmouth squad. It's also a team I hold near and dear to my heart, but that's beside the point. Like the previous two teams we've looked at, George Mason came out of a really good league in 2006. The CAA had two teams in the NCAA Tournament (one in the Final Four) and two teams in the final four of the NIT. Not too shabby. Mason also cracked the top-25 near the end of the year. The MAAC hasn't been as good this season as the CAA was in 2006, side-by-side, the '06 Patriots and this year's Hawks are a pretty good comparison. Mason was 10-8 vs the top-150 that season, while Monmouth is 9-3. The Hawks' quality are more impressive than George Mason's were that year as well. Mason was probably a more battle-tested team than Monmouth is, but if you're a Hawks fan, this comparison has to make you optimistic about your team's chances.

1994-95 Manhattan Jaspers: 25-4 (12-2 MAAC), RPI: 50, SOS: 200, Coach: Fran Fraschilla, NCAA Tournament: #13 seed.

NCAA Tournament teams

[Note: These stats were compiled by CollegeRPI.]

Schedule Highlights:

W VS Eastern Michigan (RPI: 69)
W @ Florida International (RPI: 227)
W VS Colgate (RPI: 122)
W VS Rutgers (RPI: 104)
W VS St. Peter's (RPI: 100)

W @ St. Peter's (RPI: 100)
L VS St. Peter's (RPI 100)

W @ Canisius (RPI: 88)

L VS Canisius (RPI: 88)

L VS #25 St. John's (RPI: 78)

Season Lowlights:

L @ Iona (RPI: 254)

Summary:

VS RPI Top 50: 0-0
VS RPI 51-100: 4-3
VS RPI 101-150: 4-0
VS RPI 151-199: 5-0
VS RPI 200+: 12-1

NCAA Tournament, #13 Seed:

Round of 64: W VS #4 Oklahoma
Round of 32: L VS #5 Arizona State

Unlike the other three teams we've looked at, the 1995 Manhattan Jaspers didn't make it to the tournament's final weekend. In fact, they didn't make it out of the first weekend. But that doesn't mean they didn't leave their mark. More importantly, they were a team from the MAAC who used the same formula to get this far, that Monmouth has used this season. They won some top-100 games, took care of the bad teams on their schedule, and dominated play within their league. While the Jaspers didn't have as many bad losses as Monmouth, their quality wins don't compare with the Hawks', and Monmouth played a better schedule too. Hopefully, this has Monmouth fans feeling good about their team. The MAAC has pulled out two-bid seasons in the past, and I'm confident they'll do it again should they need to.

As I finished writing this, I realized that I probably haven't eased the minds of many Monmouth faithful, but it's still fun to compare teams from the past, isn't it?

Every season is different, so ultimately history won't matter on selection Sunday. But if you were wondering if Monmouth was good enough to make the NCAA Tournament, the answer is a resounding yes. Now, we'll have to wait to see if it actually happens.

Seasons like the one we're experiencing this year, where no team has been truly dominant, have worked out well for mid-majors, both in terms of getting into the tournament, and busting brackets once they arrive. There's no reason 2016 can't be like that, too.

I'd like to leave you all with one final thought of superstition. The NCAA Tournament field expanded to 64 teams in 1985. Since then, every tournament in a year ending in the number six, has produced some rather unpredictable results. In 1986, the #11-seed LSU Tigers beat Purdue, Memphis, Georgia Tech, and Kentucky on their way to the Final Four. In 1996, coach John Calipari and Marcus Camby lead Massachusetts, out of the Atlantic 10, to the Final Four. Granted, the Minutemen were a very good team and were a #1-seed. However, it's not easy for anyone outside of the power conferences to navigate the tournament field, even as a #1-seed. Just ask Gonzaga. A decade after UMass reached the Final Four, #11-seed George Mason made their mark on college basketball (see above). Now it's 2016, and who knows what lies ahead? Could we be in for another wild tournament? Why not? And why not Monmouth, whether they win the MAAC tournament title or not?

Stay connected to The Monday Morning Quarterback for coverage of Monmouth's run through the MAAC tournament and of all the other conference tournament action.