Past and Present: A Different Look at Super Bowl LIII

[ PHOTO: ROKU ]

February 2, 2019

Peter Solari, Editor in Chief  Follow @4PeteSakeNY

We're just hours away from kickoff of Super Bowl LIII in Atlanta, which can only means that it's time for The Monday Morning Quarterback's fourth annual Super Bowl preview.

This isn't your run-of-the-mill Big Game preview, and probably nothing like the ones you've been reading for the past couple of weeks.

We won't be analyzing stats, rosters, or gameplans here. Instead, we'll look back at the past 53 seasons and the history of the Super Bowl. More specifically, we'll examine the trends of pro football's biggest game, and what they tell us about this year's games and participants.

This task is, admittedly, becoming more difficult as the years go on, and there are two reasons why: Tom Brady and Bill Belichick.

It's not easy to compare the Patriots to history because, when it comes to the Super Bowl, they are history. And they continue to make history every time they're one of the last two teams standing. So, let's start with the AFC Champion New England Patriots.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (11-5) - AFC CHAMPIONS

[ PHOTO: CBS 4 WBZ-BOSTON ]

Let's face it: When it comes to the Super Bowl era, the Patriots are the gold standard. It may come as a surprise to you that this wasn't always the case. If you grew up over the past 20 years, you might think that New England was always great. They weren't. In fact, until the Patriots plundered Belichick from the Jets, and until Mo Lewis ended Drew Bledsoe's season in week 2 back in 2001, the Patriots were kind of a doormat in the NFL. But that all changed around the turn-of-the-century.

Super Bowl LIII will be New England's 11th appearance in the big game. That's unheard of. The Pittsburgh Steelers, Dallas Cowboys, and Denver Broncos have only been to eight, and that's the closest anybody is to the Patriots.

When it comes to coaches, the story is pretty much the same. Again, in their entire histories, Pittsburgh, Dallas, and Denver have been to eight Super Bowls each, while Belichick will be coaching in his league-record ninth Super Bowl. The great Don Shula is next on that list with six, while Tom Landry coached the Cowboys in five Big Games. Amazingly, of those three coaches, only Belichick has a winning record on Super Sunday. He's 5-3 in the Super Bowl, while Shula and Landry are 2-4 and 2-3, respectively.

Barring any setbacks, Tom Brady will also set a new league record on Sunday (breaking the one previously held by himself) when he starts for the ninth time on Super Bowl Sunday. And mind you, Belichick and Brady have done all this since 2001. Greats such as John Elway, only started five Super Bowls for the Broncos, while five others, including the great Joe Montana, commanded their troops in the Big Game four times each. Again, Brady will be making his ninth Super Bowl Appearance this Sunday.

Currently, Brady is also tied with Hall of Fame linebacker/defensive end Charles Haley for most Super Bowl championships won by a single player. Of course, Brady has already won five championships with the Patriots (Super Bowls XXXVI, XXXVIII, XXXIX. XLIX, LI), and a win Sunday would give him a league-record sixth Super Bowl ring.

Haley, on the other hand, won two titles with the San Francisco 49ers (Super Bowls XXIII and XXIV) and three with Dallas (Super Bowls XXVII, XXVIII, and XXX) in the late 80's and 90's. Should Brady do the unfathomable, and raise the Vince Lombardi Trophy on Sunday, he will stand all alone on top of this mountain.

You might be starting to see why it's so difficult to put the Patriots into a historical context of the Super Bowl. There's simply very little to compare them to. That's how rare their accomplishments are. Luckily, there are a few things we can look at for the sake of this piece, first and foremost being their record.

The Patriots finished a disappointing (by their standards) 11-5 in 2018. Overall, 11-5 teams are just 3-9 in Super Bowls past, and the Patriots are just 1-3. New England lost Super Bowls XX and XXXI, before winning Super Bowl XXXVI over you-know-who, the Rams. 

It is worth noting that when considering 11-win teams, their Super Bowl record slightly improves to 4-9 all-time. The Washington Redskins were 11-4 in a strike-shortened 1987 season, before going on to win Super Bowl XXII at season's end.

Super Bowl LIII marks the third straight trip to the Big Game for New England, which again puts them in rare (though not exclusive) air. The Miami Dolphins played in three straight Super Bowls from 1971-1973, having lost to Dallas in Super Bowl VI, before beating the Redskins and Vikings in Super Bowls VII and VIII, respectively.

Technically, the Buffalo Bills have been to three straight Super Bowls twice in their run of four straight Big Game appearances from 1990-1993, going 0-4 against the New York Giants, Redskins, and Cowboys twice in Super Bowls XXV, XXVI, XXVII, and XXVIII. 

The Patriots, of course, beat the Falcons in overtime two years ago in Super Bowl LI, before succumbing to the Eagles in Super Bowl LII last year. When considering the Dolphins' 2-1 record from '71-'73, the Bills' 0-4 record from '90-'93, and the Pats' 1-1 record (pending Sunday's outcome) from '16-'18, teams appearing in three straight Super Bowls, have an overall record of 3-6 on Super Sunday and just 1-2 in their three-peat appearances (again, pending Sunday's outcome). Obviously, this doesn't tell us much. However, if we look at just back-to-back Super Bowl appearances, things get more interesting, so let's examine that.

Since we're examining back-to-back appearances as part of the Patriots' run to three straight Big Games, we will consider the Bills' run to four straight Super Bowls as three separate instances of back-to-back appearances, and the Dolphins' run from '71-'73 as two separate back-to-back appearances.

Using these standards, Super Bowl LIII will be the 21st instance in which a team has appeared in back-to-back Big Games.

1. Green Bay Packers - Super Bowls I & II
2. Dallas Cowboys - Super Bowls V & VI
3. Miami Dolphins - Super Bowls VI & VII
4. Miami Dolphins - Super Bowls VII & VIII
5. Minnesota Vikings - Super Bowls VIII & IX
6. Pittsburgh Steelers - Super Bowls IX & X
7. Dallas Cowboys - Super Bowls XII & XIII
8. Pittsburgh Steelees - Super Bowls XIII & XIV
9. Washington Redskins - Super Bowls XVII & XVIII
10. Denver Broncos - Super Bowls XXI & XXII
11. San Francisco Super Bowls XXIII & XXIV
12. Buffalo Bills - Super Bowls XXV & XXVI
13. Buffalo Bills - Super Bowls XXVI & XXVII
14. Buffalo Bills - Super Bowls XXVII & XXVIII
15. Dallas Cowboys - Super Bowls XXVII & XXVIII
16. Green Bay Packers - Super Bowls XXXI & XXXII
17. Denver Broncos - Super Bowls XXXII & XXXIII
18. New England Patriots - Super Bowls XXXVIII & XXXIX
19. Seattle Seahawks - Super Bowls XLVIII & XLIX
20. New England Patriots - Super Bowls LI & LII
21. New England Patriots - Super Bowls LII & LIII

Combined, teams playing in back-to-back Super Bowls, regardless of whether or not they won the first game, are just 10-10 in their second go-arounds. This includes the Patriots, who are 1-1 when appearing in consecutive years. New England beat the Carolina Panthers in Super Bowl XXXVIII, and followed that up with a win over the Philadelphia Eagles the following year. Of course, last year, the Eagles got their revenge by knocking off the defending champion Patriots in Super Bowl LII.

Which brings us to our next topic of conversation: Super Bowl rematches.

For the second straight year, America will be treated to a Super Bowl rematch. Believe it or not, this is only the eight time in history that has happened, including two rematches between the Steelers and Cowboys, who met in Super Bowls X, XII, and XXX. The Patriots beat the Rams 17 years ago in Super Bowl XXXVI, and ignited their dynasty. Overall, teams that won the first meeting are just a combined 4-3 the second time around in Big Game rematches.

Even less encouraging if you're a New England fan, is the fact that the Patriots themselves, are 0-2 in Super Bowl rematches, having lost to the New York Giants in Super Bowl XLII and XLVI, to go along with their defeat at the hands of Philadelphia last season.

Finally, we'll take a look at the man, the myth, the legend himself, Tom Brady.

If you thought I was finished listing Brady's incredible accomplishments, you were wrong. Brady also holds the record for most Super Bowl MVP awards with four in Super Bowls XXXVI, XXXVIII, XLIX, and LI. 49ers quarterback Joe Montana won the award three times, while Packers QB Bart Starr, Steelers QB Terry Bradshaw, and Giants QB Eli Manning each won twice.

Super Bowl LIII will mark the 25th time in a history that a quarterback who was previously named Super Bowl MVP, will start the Big Game again. Overall, prior Super Bowl MVPs have a record of 15-9 in subsequent Super Bowls. Brady is 4-3 on Super Sunday, since winning his first MVP in Super Bowl XXXVI.

Now, let's take a look at the NFC Champion Los Angeles Rams.

LOS ANGELES RAMS (13-3) - NFC CHAMPIONS

[ PHOTO: PITTSBURGH POST-GAZETTE ]

Coach Sean McVay and the Los Angeles Rams took the NFL by storm this year. It's been an incredible turnaround for this franchise.

Two seasons ago, the Rams' first in greater Los Angeles since 1994. the team finished just 4-12 and fired head coach Jeff Fisher. They brought in a 31-year-old McVay, a longtime Redskins assistant, and got instant results. The Rams finished 11-5 last year and won the NFC West. This year, McVay and company improved to 13-3 on their way to the NFC Championship, and now at age 33, McVay will become the youngest head coach in Super Bowl history.

While 13-3 may have been an improvement over last season, it may not all be good news for Los Angeles, as teams that finished the season 13-3 are just 8-10 in Super Bowls, and just 3-4 when facing teams with worse records. The Rams may have been better off either winning or losing just one more game as teams who finished 14-2 or 12-4 have winning records on Super Sunday, both overall and against teams with less wins.

But don't worry. There is some good news, Rams fans.

Super Bowl LIII will be the Rams franchise's fourth appearance in the Big Game. The Los Angeles Rams lost Super Bowl XIV to the Pittsburgh Steelers, while the St. Louis Rams beat the Tennessee Titans in Super Bowl XXXIV. before succumbing to the Pats in Super Bowl XXXVI. In history, only the Cowboys and Redskins followed the same pattern as the Rams (lose, win, lose), in their teams' first three Super Bowl appearances. Combined, Dallas and Washington are 8-5 in Super Bowls overall, and an amazing 6-1 since starting off 1-2 in their first three appearances.

And there's more, LA fans.

Starting quarterback Jared Goff was the top overall pick in the 2016 NFL Draft. He becomes the 10th top overall pick in history, to start a Super Bowl at the QB position (this includes the AFL Draft from 1966-1969). 

1. Joe Namath, New York Jets, Super Bowl III
2. Terry Bradshaw. Pittsburgh Steelers, Super Bowls IX, X, XIII, XIV
3. Jim Plunkett, Oakland/Los Angeles Raiders, Super Bowls XV, XVIII
4. John Elway, Denver Broncos, Super Bowls XXI, XXII, XXIV, XXXII, XXXIII
5. Troy Aikman, Dallas Cowboys, Super Bowls XXVII, XXVIII, XXX
6. Drew Bledsoe, New England Patriots, Super Bowl XXXI
7. Peyton Manning, Indianapolis Colts and Denver Broncos, Super Bowls XLI, XLIV, XLVIII, 50
8. Eli Manning, New York Giants, Super Bowls XLII, XLVI
9. Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers, Super Bowl 50
10. Jared Goff, Los Angeles Rams, Super Bowl LIII

Overall, former top overall picks are 16-7 on Super Bowl Sunday, and, as you can see from the list above, six of the previous nine played in, and won multiple Super Bowl titles. Should this trend continue, the future could be very bright for Goff, McVay and the Mob Squad.

This is what is so entriguing about analyzing a team like the Rams, as opposed to the Patriots. New England has established itself as one of, if not the best franchise in the league. For the Rams, their entire future could be riding on the outcome of this game.

Take, for example, Goff, who will become the 61st quarterback in history, to start at least one Super Bowl. The other 60 have a combined even record of 30-30 in their first Super Bowl starts. Amazingly, 24 of the 30 who lost that first start, never have or have yet to return to the Big Game, and have a combined record of just 4-9 on Super Bowl Sunday. Overall, quarterbacks who lost their first Super Bowl start, are just a combined 4-33 in the Big Game.

On the other hand, 14 of the 30 quarterbacks who won in their first Super Bowl, have returned to the big game, and have a combined 18-13 record in subsequent Super Bowls. Overall, quarterbacks who won their first Super Bowl starts have a combined record of 48-13 in the Big Game.

If history has anything to say about it, Goff's performance in Super Bowl LIII could be a determining factor in just how successful his career as a whole will be. And he's not alone, either. Sunday's matchup could tell us a lot about McVay's future, as well.

On Sunday, McVay will become the 55th head coach in Super Bowl history. Like the quarterbacks, first time head coaches have an even 27-27 record in the Big Game. 14 out of 27 of those first time winners, have since returned to the Big Game, and are a combined 18-9 in those return trips. Meanwhile, only nine of the first time losers have returned to the Super Bowl, and are just a combined 7-8 in their returns to the Big Game.

Finally, let's continue along the same lines, and examine what Super Bowl LIII's outcome could mean for the Rams as a franchise. To do this, I only want to analyze the Rams in Los Angeles, as opposed to their history in both LA and St. Louis. 

The reason I want to do this, is because for the LA Rams, this is only their second Super Bowl appearance, and they lost their first one to Pittsburgh in Super Bowl XIV. I've written about this before, so you may know where I'm headed. The Los Angeles Rams are at a crossroad, and Sunday's game could have major implications on how this works out for them.

28 of the 32 NFL franchises have made at least one Super Bowl appearance, with the Detroit Lions, Cleveland Browns, Jacksonville Jaguars, and Houston Texans, being the exceptions. Those 28 teams are a composite 9-19 in their respective franchises' first Super Bowl appearances. Of the 19 teams to lose their first time around, the San Diego/Los Angeles Chargers, Tennessee Titans, and  Arizona Cardinals are the only teams not to make a second trip to the Super Bowl. The 16 teams who have made return trips to the Big Game, have an aggregate record of 8-8 in their second Super Bowls. From that group, the eight winners (Chiefs, Raiders, Colts, Cowboys, Dolphins, Redskins, Rams, Seahawks) are 10-9 in subsequent Super Bowls and 18-17 on Super Sunday overall.

Meanwhile, of the eight losers from that group, only three (Broncos, Patriots, Eagles) have ever lifted the Lombardi Trophy. The other five teams (Vikings, Bills, Bengals, Panthers, Falcons) are a collective 0-4 in subsequent Super Bowls, and 0-12 in the Big Game overall.

Even  thought the Rams' franchise has appeared in four Super Bowls, this is just the second for the LA Rams, and a lot could be riding on it, if history tells us anything.

CONCLUSION

As somebody who considers himself an amateur sports historian, I have a great interest in looking at the trends of the past, to see what we can learn about the present and future. And when I look at the above trends particularly, it appears as if the Patriots (for once) have a bit of an uphill battle on their hands. With that being said, allow me to repeat myself once again, and remind you that this is Belichick, Brady, and the mighty Patriots we're talking. When it comes to the Super Bowl, they've got all the history anyone could ever need on their side, so think twice before betting against them. With that in mind, I'm going to take a risk here and say that while most are expecting a high-scoring affair, I'm going to go the other way on this. The Rams defense is a little bit underrated, and they've been spectacular throughout the playoffs. For that reason, I'm predicting a low-scoring 24-21 final in favor of the Los Angeles Rams. Now, we'll see if history is on my side.