Showing posts with label Atlanta Falcons. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Atlanta Falcons. Show all posts

03 February, 2019

The Monday Morning Quarterback

2019 Pro Football Hall of Fame Class Revealed

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25 January, 2019

The Monday Morning Quarterback

2019 NFL Free Agents Ranked

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20 January, 2019

The Monday Morning Quarterback

Calvin Ridley Has Car Stolen at Atlanta Gas Station

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16 January, 2019

The Monday Morning Quarterback

Falcons DE Takkarist McKinley Detained by Police and Undergoing Mental Evaluation

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08 January, 2019

The Monday Morning Quarterback

BREAKING: Falcons Reportedly Hiring Former Bucs Coach Dirk Koetter as OC

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05 January, 2019

The Monday Morning Quarterback

4 Biggest NFL All-Pro Snubs

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04 January, 2019

The Monday Morning Quarterback

Pro Football Hall of Fame Announces Full List of Finalists

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31 December, 2018

The Monday Morning Quarterback

REPORT: Dirk Koetter Front-Runner for Falcons OC Job

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The Monday Morning Quarterback

BREAKING: Falcons Reportedly Clean House and Fire 3 Assistant Coaches

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The Monday Morning Quarterback

None of the 6 Highest-Paid Quarterbacks Made the Playoffs

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23 November, 2018

The Monday Morning Quarterback

Drew Brees Dazzles Once Again as Saints Dominate the Falcons

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22 November, 2018

The Monday Morning Quarterback

VIDEO: Saints RB Mark Ingram Trolls Falcons Ahead of Thanksgiving Clash

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18 November, 2018

The Monday Morning Quarterback

Jerry Jones Says Cowboys Player Suffered Personal Tragedy and Locker Room Turned Somber After Win

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The Monday Morning Quarterback

VIDEO: Cowboys Beat Falcons on Game-Winning Kick From Brett Maher

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The Monday Morning Quarterback

VIDEO: Watch Julio Jones Make Impossible Catch to Tie Game Against Cowboys

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11 November, 2018

The Monday Morning Quarterback

Patrick Mahomes' Girlfriend Brittany Matthews Reveals Her Stepfather Tragically Died at Chiefs Game

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The Monday Morning Quarterback

VIDEO: Baker Mayfield Said He Was Feeling 'Dangerous' When He Woke Up Today

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23 October, 2018

The Monday Morning Quarterback

Using Analytics to Defend Pat Shurmur is a Flawed Argument

[ PHOTO: USA TODAY ]
October 23, 2018
Peter Solari, Editor in Chief


The New York Giants fell to 1-6 on the season Monday night after losing to the Falcons 23-20 in Atlanta, and all the postgame talk focused on head coach Pat Shurmur's decision to go for two late in the fourth quarter, after a 2-yard touchdown run closed the Giants' deficit to eight points, 20-12.

Amidst all the ballyhoo, it's important to remember that this play ultimately had no impact on the outcome of the game. You can argue from a "momentum" standpoint if you'd like, but I'm not buying it. However, for the sake of this piece, let's forget all of that. Let's forget that if the Giants' $95 million receiver had caught the ball on the controversial two-point conversion attempt, then this play would've been forgotten. Let's forget that the Giants' defense failed to prevent the Falcons from scoring on the ensuing possession. Let's forget that some kicker from Italy that you never heard of before Monday, all but ended the game when he booted a 56-yard field goal to give the Falcons an 11-point lead with less than two minutes to play. And let's forget that the Giants' hapless offense threw even the possibility of a miraculous comeback out the window, when they wasted 40 valuable seconds trying to punch the ball in from Atlanta's 1-yard line. Yes, let's forget all of that, because according the analytics, Shurmur's decision to go for two in that situation was the correct call, and that's what's really at issue here.

As Seth Walder from ESPN Analytics explains:
The math backs up Pat Shurmur's decision to go for two down eight points with less than five minutes to go. Going for it then gives Shurmur an informational advantage. If the Giants convert, then on their next touchdown they know they only need to kick a PAT to take the lead (assuming no other scores). If they fail, which they did, they have an opportunity to go for it again to tie. The long and short of it: converting once is much more likely than failing twice.
We've all seen coaches consulting those charts on the sidelines, the ones that tell them whether to they should go for two, or just kick the extra point, in various situations. Well, as it turns out, Shurmur not only examined his chart, but acted on its advice as well.

According to the chart, had the Giants converted on the two-point attempt, their win probability would have increased 5.2%, whereas kicking the extra point would have only garnered a 3.3% increase in win probability. So naturally, Shurmur made the correct call, right? Wrong!

There are multiple problems with using this chart as an end-all-be-all when determining whether or not to go for two. First and foremost, being that the chart just assumes you will convert on your extra point(s) attempts. In other words, when you're down by eight points, your win probability will only increase by 5%, if your two-point conversion attempt is actually successful, as several Twitter users aptly pointed out:
What the infamous chart won't tell you is that NFL teams have a nearly 50% greater chance of kicking an extra point than they do of successfully converting a two-point attempt. As Five Thirty Eight pointed out back in 2016, NFL teams had converted on 47.1% of two-point conversion attempts since 2001. Meanwhile, since moving extra point kicks back to the 15-yard line in 2015, teams had a 94.4% success rate. So if you're Coach Shurmur on Monday night, you have to ask yourself if tthose odds and that risk are worth a meager 2% jump in win probability. They aren't.

What's further problematic about the chart, is that it considers one factor, and one factor only: that you're down by eight points. It doesn't care if you're 1-5 and desperate for a win, or if your offense is famous for its inability to find the end zone, all of which Shurmur should have considered.

While it may be true (for the average NFL team), as Walden says, that "converting once is much more likely than failing twice," the Giants aren't an average NFL team right now. They're a bad one. And as someone who has, and does watch this team on a consistent basis, I have no problem envisioning them failing on a couple of two-point conversion attempts. 

"Better safe than sorry" would have been the appropriate call for Shurmur on Monday night. There may be some who rightfully have no faith in the Giants winning an overtime game, and might appreciate Shurmur's aggressive nature. That's certainly understandable, but big picture-wise, a tie, or even an OT-loss, would have at least been a step in the right direction. Instead, we're left scratching our heads after another bad loss, and no visible light at the end of the tunnel.

But it's important to remember that none of this affected the outcome of Monday's game. At the end of the day, the same laundry list of problems did the Giants in; their failure to wake up before it was too late, not withstanding. 


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The Monday Morning Quarterback

Pat Shurmur's Explanation on Going for Two Late Against Falcons is Completely Moronic

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22 October, 2018

The Monday Morning Quarterback

Falcons Escape Late Comeback by Giants for Thrilling Win on MNF

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18 October, 2018

The Monday Morning Quarterback

REPORT: Giants TE Evan Engram on Track for Monday Night Football Return

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26 March, 2018

The Monday Morning Quarterback

Children with Disabilities Play Football with NFL Players

[ PHOTO: THE JERUSALEM POST ]
On Sunday, a group of football players from the US National Football League (NFL), came for a special visit to Shalva in Jerusalem. The delegation consisted of some 30 leading football players, past and present, including several who wore Super Bowl rings. Included were Tyson Alualu of the Pittsburgh Steelers, Don Carey of the Jacksonville…
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17 March, 2018

The Monday Morning Quarterback

Patriots Add DE Clayborn, RB Hill, OT Tobin

[ PHOTO: USA TODAY ]
The New England Patriots added three players to their roster after seeing several key mainstays depart earlier in the week. Former Atlanta Falcons defensive end Adrian Clayborn reportedly agreed to a two-year deal with a maximum value of $12.5 million, ESPN's Adam Schefter reported on Friday. Clayborn took to Instagram to reveal that he is now…
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12 January, 2018

The Monday Morning Quarterback

Divisional Playoff Round Game Scout: Falcons at Eagles

[ PHOTO: THE PHILADELPHIA INQUIRER ]
ATLANTA FALCONS (11-6) AT PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (13-3) GAME SNAPSHOT KICKOFF: Saturday, 4:35 p.m. ET, Lincoln Financial Field, TV: NBC, Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth, Michele Tafoya (field reporter) SERIES HISTORY: 35th all-time meeting. Eagles lead series, 18-14-2. They last met in Week 10 of the 2016 season at Lincoln Financial Field. The Eagles won the game, 24-15.…
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11 January, 2018

The Monday Morning Quarterback

Falcons Favored to Break Philadelphia Curse

[ PHOTO: FORBES ]
FLOWERY BRANCH, Ga. -- The Atlanta Falcons have never won in the playoffs in Philadelphia. The Falcons are 0-2 in Philadelphia in the playoffs and 1-0 at home. The Falcons (11-6) and Eagles (13-3) will meet for the fourth time in the postseason in a NFC divisional round playoff game at 4:35 p.m. on Saturday at…
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12 December, 2017

The Monday Morning Quarterback

Hester Announces Retirement Over Twitter

[ PHOTO: CHICAGO SUN-TIMES ]
Devin Hester, the all-time leader in combined kickoff and punt returns for touchdowns, announced his retirement from the NFL on Twitter Tuesday. "I have good news and bad news," the 35-year-old Hester wrote. "Good news: Commissioner Goodell, you can put the kickoff back at the 30. Bad news: Y'all will have to find a new favorite…
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08 December, 2017

The Monday Morning Quarterback

Falcons Stop Saints to Keep Division Hopes Alive

[ PHOTO: ATLANTA JOURNAL CONSTITUTION ]
ATLANTA -- The defending NFC South champion Atlanta Falcons showed Thursday night that they aren't ready to concede the division title just yet. Linebacker Deion Jones intercepted a Drew Brees pass in the end zone with less than two minutes remaining to preserve the Falcons' 20-17 victory over the New Orleans Saints. Matt Bryant provided the…
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07 December, 2017

The Monday Morning Quarterback

Falcons Host Saints, Look To Stay In Division Race

[ PHOTO: THE NEW ORLEANS TIMES-PICAYUNE ]
If the Atlanta Falcons hope to repeat as NFC South champions, they’re going to have to beat the New Orleans Saints on “Thursday Night Football.” The team that nearly won the Super Bowl a year ago hosts their division rivals in the first game of Week 14, looking to get back in the playoff picture. The…
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03 December, 2017

The Monday Morning Quarterback

Keenum Sends Vikings to Eighth Straight Win

[ PHOTO: MINNEAPOLIS STAR TRIBUNE ]
ATLANTA -- The Minnesota Vikings shut down Julio Jones and the Atlanta Falcons to stretch their winning streak to eight games on Sunday. Case Keenum threw two short touchdown passes and the Vikings held the Falcons to three field goals in a 14-9 victory.
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26 November, 2017

The Monday Morning Quarterback

Falcons Beat Bucs Behind Jones' 253 Reception Yards

[ PHOTO: ATLANTA JOURNAL CONSTITUTION ]
ATLANTA -- Atlanta Falcons All-Pro wide receiver Julio Jones burned Tampa Bay again on Sunday, extending his banner success against the Buccaneers. Jones, who came in with just one touchdown, caught 12 passes for 253 yards and two scores as the Falcons won their third game in a row, beating the Bucs 34-20.
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23 November, 2017

The Monday Morning Quarterback

Week 12 Game Scout: Buccaneers at Falcons

[ PHOTO: ATLANTA JOURNAL CONSTITUTION ]
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (4-6) AT ATLANTA FALCONS (6-4) KICKOFF: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, Mercedes-Benz Stadium. TV: Fox, Dick Stockton, Mark Schlereth, Shannon Spake (field reporter). SERIES HISTORY: 48th regular-season meeting.
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05 November, 2017

The Monday Morning Quarterback

Panthers Rally to Subdue Falcons

[ PHOTO: THE SACRAMENTO BEE ]
CHARLOTTE, N.C. -- The Carolina Panthers blanked the Atlanta Falcons for most of the final three quarters in a 20-17 victory Sunday afternoon at Bank of America Stadium. Christian McCaffrey and Cam Newton scored on short touchdown runs as the Panthers (6-3) wiped out an early 10-0 hole to win for the second week in a…
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02 November, 2017

The Monday Morning Quarterback

Week 9 Game Scout: Falcons at Panthers

[ PHOTO: THE RALEIGH NEWS & OBSERVER ]

ATLANTA FALCONS (4-3) AT CAROLINA PANTHERS (5-3) KICKOFF: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, Bank of America Stadium. TV: FOX, Joe Buck, Troy Aikman, Erin Andrews (field reporter). SERIES HISTORY: 45th regular-season meeting. Falcons lead series, 27-17. The Falcons won both games last season, 48-33 in Atlanta and 33-16 in Charlotte. KEYS TO THE GAME: The Panthers traded…
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29 October, 2017

The Monday Morning Quarterback

Falcons Edge Jets to End Skid vs. AFC East

[ PHOTO: ATLANTA JOURNAL CONSTITUTION ]
EAST RUTHERFORD, N.J. -- The Atlanta Falcons' season, like the wet football that Matt Ryan kept fumbling, was in danger of slipping away. But it was the New York Jets who again couldn't hang on in the end. Staring at a fourth straight loss to an AFC East opponent, Ryan hit New Jersey native Mohamed Sanu…
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15 October, 2017

The Monday Morning Quarterback

QB Ryan, Falcons Lamenting Collapse vs. Dolphins

[ PHOTO: ATLANTA JOURNAL CONSTITUTION ]
ATLANTA -- Matt Ryan had been 7-2 following bye weeks and it looked like the reigning NFL Most Valuable Player would win again Sunday when his Atlanta Falcons led the Miami Dolphins 17-0 at halftime. The Dolphins dominated the second half, though, and Ryan's late-game magic of previous seasons was missing again as his tipped interception…
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The Monday Morning Quarterback

Dolphins Overcome 17-Point Deficit to Top Falcons

[ PHOTO: MIAMI HERALD ]
ATLANTA -- The Atlanta Falcons, like in the Super Bowl last season, couldn't hold a big halftime lead and it was the Miami Dolphins who came away with a victory this time. Safety Reshad Jones intercepted Matt Ryan at the 6-yard line with 39 seconds left and the Dolphins defeated the Falcons 20-17 on Sunday at Mercedes-Benz Stadium after trailing 17-0 at halftime.
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01 October, 2017

The Monday Morning Quarterback

Hauschka, Bills' D Too Much for Falcons

[ PHOTO: ROCHESTER DEMOCRAT & CHRONICLE ]
ATLANTA -- The Buffalo Bills showed the Atlanta Falcons that their defense is for real and Stephen Hauschka made sure that the effort paid off with a victory on Sunday. Hauschka kicked fourth-quarter field goals of 56 and 55 yards and the Bills stopped the Falcons on fourth down at the 10-yard line with 44 seconds…
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25 September, 2017

The Monday Morning Quarterback

Falcons Hold off Lions to Stay Unbeaten

[ PHOTO: DETROIT FREE PRESS ]
DETROIT -- Matt Ryan connected with Taylor Gabriel for a 40-yard, go-ahead scoring strike on the first play of the fourth quarter and the Atlanta Falcons barely held off the Detroit Lions 30-26 on Sunday at Ford Field. Detroit quarterback Matthew Stafford apparently completed a 1-yard touchdown pass to Golden Tate with eight seconds remaining. After…
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21 September, 2017

The Monday Morning Quarterback

Week 3 GameScout: Falcons at Lions

[ PHOTO: DETROIT FREE PRESS ]
ATLANTA FALCONS (2-0) AT DETROIT LIONS (2-0) KICKOFF: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, Ford Field. TV: FOX, Chris Myers, Daryl Johnston, Laura Okmin (field reporter). SERIES HISTORY: 37th regular-season meeting. Lions lead series, 24-12. One memorable meeting between these two teams came in 2012, when Calvin Johnson caught 11 passes for 225 yards to break Jerry Rice's…
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20 September, 2017

The Monday Morning Quarterback

Lions, Falcons in a Battle of Undefeated Teams

[ PHOTO: FOX SPORTS ]
FLOWERY BRANCH, Ga. -- The Atlanta Falcons appeared to make major strides from the season-opener to their second game against the Green Bay Packers. They will need another leap on the road when they face the upstart Detroit Lions, who are also off to a 2-0 start with impressive wins over the Seahawks and Giants. The…
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18 August, 2017

The Monday Morning Quarterback

Rookie McKinley to Make Debut Sunday

[ PHOTO: THE FALCOHOLIC ]
FLOWERY BRANCH, Ga. -- Atlanta Falcons head coach Dan Quinn said rookie defensive end Takkarist McKinley is likely to make his debut against the Steelers on Sunday. The staff gave McKinley, the team's first-round pick, a full load of practice this week and he came through with flying colors. "He had a really good week of…
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16 August, 2017

The Monday Morning Quarterback

New NFL Stadium has a Restaurant That’s Closed on Sundays

[ PHOTO: CURBED ATLANTA ]
Mercedes-Benz Stadium will luckily have plenty of events, but the new home of the Atlanta Falcons won’t have access to at least one restaurant on any Sunday for the entire season. That’s because Chick-Fil-A’s are closed on Sundays, yet they put one in the stadium anyways: Zaxby's now the official chicken of the Falcons. That doesn't…
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06 August, 2017

The Monday Morning Quarterback

Falcons CB Collins Gets 10-game Ban for PED Usage

[ PHOTO: ATLANTA JOURNAL CONSTITUTION ]
Atlanta Falcons cornerback Jalen Collins has been suspended 10 games without pay for violating the NFL's policy on performance-enhancing substances for the second time, the league announced Sunday. Collins, 24, served a four-game suspension last season for his first offense. "We are extremely disappointed that for the second straight season we are dealing with a suspension…
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11 June, 2017

The Monday Morning Quarterback

Pats' Super Bowl Ring: 283 Diamonds as Reminder of Historic Comeback

[ PHOTO: FOX SPORTS ]
The New England Patriots revealed their Super Bowl LI ring containing 283 diamonds as an apparent reminder to the team's historic comeback from a 28-3 deficit in the memorable victory against the Atlanta Falcons. Players, coaches, football staff and team executives were presented with the rings to commemorate the Patriots' fifth Super Bowl championship during a…
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28 May, 2017

The Monday Morning Quarterback

No Talks Yet Between Vick, Falcons on Sign-to-Retire Deal

[ PHOTO: BLEACHER REPORT ]
Quarterback Michael Vick, the former No. 1 overall pick of the Atlanta Falcons, clarified his earlier comments regarding retirement, saying he has not spoken with anyone from the organization about signing a one-day contract so he can officially retire as a member of the Falcons. Vick, hosting his V7 Elite Playmakers Showcase Series football event Sunday,…
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27 May, 2017

The Monday Morning Quarterback

QB Vick Wants to Retire as a Falcon

[ PHOTO: BLEACHER REPORT ]
Quarterback Michael Vick, the former No. 1 overall pick of the Atlanta Falcons, is hoping to sign a one-day contract with the team and officially retire as a member of the Falcons. In February, Vick announced he was retired from the NFL but he told CBS Radio in Atlanta on Friday night that he has talked…
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26 May, 2017

The Monday Morning Quarterback

Key OTA Battle: Strong Competition Coming for Falcons at Right Guard

[ PHOTO: ATLANTA JOURNAL CONSTITUTION ]
FLOWERY BRANCH, Ga. -- When the Atlanta Falcons open their OTAs on Tuesday, all of the attention will shift to the middle of the offensive line. Center Alex Mack is recovering from a broken fibula and they must also replace right guard Chris Chester, who started 32 games over the past two seasons before electing to…
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21 May, 2017

The Monday Morning Quarterback

Mike Vick Might Not be Done Playing Football After All

[ PHOTO: ATLANTA JOURNAL CONSTITUTION ]
Michael Vick retired from the NFL, but his playing career might not be officially over. Related: Michael Vick can pinpoint the exact moment he decided to retire According to ESPN’s Darren Rovell, Vick has agreed to participate in a trial game for the American Flag Football League on June 27. New pro flag football league launching,…
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11 May, 2017

The Monday Morning Quarterback

Falcons Sign First-Round Pick McKinley

 [ PHOTO: ATLANTA JOURNAL CONSTITUTION ]
The Atlanta Falcons agreed to terms with first-round pick defensive end/linebacker Takkarist McKinley, the team announced Thursday. McKinley was the 26th overall selection in last month's NFL Draft. McKinley was a two-year starter at UCLA and recorded 99 tackles, including 28 tackles for loss and 16 sacks, and also forced six fumbles and has 10 passes…
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01 May, 2017

The Monday Morning Quarterback

Falcons 2017 Draft: All Six Picks Analyzed

FLOWERY BRANCH, Ga. -- Former Wyoming running back Brian Hill was not expecting the Atlanta Falcons to select him with the 156th overall pick in the fifth round of the NFL draft on Saturday. "This is a dream come true," an excited Hill said via phone call. "I didn't expect the Falcons. No one in the…
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