Monmouth Is Officially On The Bubble

The Iona Gaels were all smiles after knocking off Monmouth in MAAC championship game, and punching their ticket to the NCAA Tournament, Monday night in Albany, NY. [Photo: SB Nation]

March 8, 2016
Peter Solari Follow @4PeteSakeNY

West Long Branch, NJ - The Monmouth Hawks (27-7) blew a golden opportunity on Monday night, falling to Iona (22-10) 79-76 in the championship game of the MAAC Tournament in Albany, NY. The Hawks will now have to wait until Sunday to see if the NCAA Tournament selection committee will grace them with an invitation to the big dance. Otherwise, Monmouth is headed for the less-heralded National Invitation Tournament.

Making matters worse for the Hawks are Valparaiso (26-6) and Wichita State (24-8), two more mid-major squads on the bubble, who lost in their league tournaments. The good news for Monmouth is that ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi, who is highly respected in the field, still has the Hawks as a #11-seed in the tournament field, though he's got them traveling to Dayton for a First Four game. That should come as no surprise. Should Monmouth make the tournament, they'll likely be one of the last teams in, so an opening round game is very possible for the Hawks. CBS Sports bracketologist Jerry Palm, on the other hand, now projects Monmouth as one of the "last four out," and it's still only Monday. We've got another week of this ahead!

These are the things that can happen when you're a mid-major on the bubble. Especially if the league you play in holds it's conference tournament early, like the MAAC does. None of the high-majors and many of the mid-majors haven't even started their tournaments yet. The field could continue to get shaken up for another week. That's why teams like Monmouth have to take care of business in their league tournaments.

The Monday Morning Quarterback has been covering the possibility of this happening for a couple of weeks now. See "Monmouth On The Bubble Part I" and "Monmouth On The Bubble Part II" for more on that.

Today, we'll take a look at Valparaiso and Wichita State to see how the Hawks stack up against those teams, and hopefully give you a better understanding of what is going on here. First, we'll take a look at Monmouth's updated resume (All stats are compiled by RealTimeRPI. Since RPIs are constantly changing, the values portrayed were accurate at the time of this post.):

Monmouth Hawks: 27-7 (17-3 1st, MAAC), RPI: 53, SOS: 164, Coach: King Rice

NCAA Tournament teams
Expected NCAA Tournament teams

Schedule Highlights:

W @ UCLA (RPI: 98)
W VS USC (RPI: 45) - Neutral site
W VS #17 Notre Dame (RPI: 37) - Neutral site
W @ Siena (RPI: 103)

W VS Siena (RPI: 103)

W @ Georgetown (RPI: 104)
L @ USC (RPI: 46)
L VS Dayton (RPI: 21) - Neutral site
W @ Iona (RPI: 86)

L VS Iona (RPI: 86)
L VS Iona (RPI: 86) - MAAC Final

Schedule Lowlights:

L @ Canisius (RPI: 222)
L @ Army (RPI: 212)
L @ Manhattan (RPI: 226)

Summary:

VS RPI Top 50: 2-2
VS RPI 51-100: 2-2
VS RPI 101-150: 6-0
VS RPI 151-199: 1-0
VS RPI 200+: 16-3

Current Projections:

Joe Lunardi, ESPN:

Last four in
West Region: #11 Monmouth VS #11 Syracuse (First Four) - Dayton, OH

Winner to face #6 Wisconsin in Providence, RI

Jerry Palm, CBS Sports:

"First four out" (Michigan, George Washington, Wichita State)

With all that's come to light, this is still a very impressive resume for Monmouth, but far from a "lock" to make the tournament. They'll be in the discussion right up until selection Sunday, but it could really go either way from there. Those three unsightly losses to Canisius, Army, and Manhattan stick out like a sore thumb and are sure to be hot topics of discussion among the selection committee. Also, Monmouth is sharing the bubble with two very good teams in Valparaiso and Wichita State, and there's still so much more basketball to be played. It's a toss-up for Monmouth as of right now.

Next we'll take a look at the Valparaiso Crusaders from the Horizon League. The Crusaders and Hawks could very easily end up battling each other for one of, if not the, last spot in the field of 68.

Valparaiso Crusaders: 26-6 (16-2 1st, Horizon), RPI: 51, SOS: 163, Coach: Bryce Drew

NCAA Tournament teams

Expected NCAA Tournament teams

Teams on the bubble

Schedule Highlights:

W @ Oregon State (RPI: 30)
W VS IPFW (RPI: 61)
W VS Iona (RPI: 86) - Neutral site
W @ Rhode Island (RPI: 106)
W VS Belmont (RPI: 97)

L @ Belmont (RPI: 97)

W @ Oakland (RPI: 115)

W VS Oakland (RPI: 115)

L @ Oregon (RPI: 4)

Schedule Lowlights:

L @ Ball State (RPI: 157)
L VS Wright State (RPI: 147)

L @ Wright State (RPI: 147)

Summary:

VS RPI Top 50: 1-1
VS RPI 51-100: 3-1
VS RPI 101-150: 5-3
VS RPI 151-199: 5-1
VS RPI 200+: 10-0
VS NAIA Teams: 2-0

Current Projections:

Joe Lunardi, ESPN:

Next four out (Michigan, Ohio State, George Washington)

Jerry Palm, CBS Sports:

Looking at Valparaiso's resume, you see another very good mid-major program. You may remember Valparaiso from the 1998 NCAA Tournament. At the time, their head coach was Homer Drew, and his son, Bryce, hit an improbable buzzer-beating three-pointer that sealed the #13-seed Crusaders victory over #4 Mississippi State. Here's a look back:

The younger Drew, who provided us with that "one shining moment," is now in his fifth season as head coach of the Valparaiso program, and he and his Crusaders are once again knocking on March's door. Though their record of 26-6 is a little deceiving because it includes two games against NAIA schools, Valparaiso would be good enough for the tournament at 24-6. Their non-conference record isn't quite as strong as Monmouth's, but it's not too shabby, and they benefit from having played in a pretty good Horizon League, which featured a number of top-150 teams. What instantly separates Valpo from Monmouth is, again, those three bad losses the Hawks had. Valpo's worst losses aren't even that bad, with only one coming outside of the top-150, and none lower than 157. Because of that, Valpo may have a stronger argument than Monmouth.

Now, we'll take a look at our final team, the Wichita State Shockers out of the Missouri Valley Conference.

Wichita State Shockers: 24-8 (16-2, 1st MVC), RPI: 47, SOS: 105, Coach: Gregg Marshall

NCAA Tournament teams

Expected NCAA Tournament teams
Teams on the bubble

Schedule Highlights:

W VS #25 Utah (RPI: 9) - Neutral site
W @ Evansville (RPI: 94)

W VS Evansville (RPI: 94)

W @ Northern Iowa (RPI: 71)

L VS Northern Iowa (RPI: 71)
L VS Northern Iowa (RPI: 71) - Missouri Valley tournament.

L @ Tulsa (RPI: 48)
L VS USC (RPI: 46) - Neutral site
L VS Iowa (RPI: 23) - Neutral site
L VS Alabama (RPI: 75)
L @ Seton Hall (RPI: 32)

Season Lowlights:

L @ Illinois State (RPI: 117)

Summary:

VS RPI Top 50: 1-4
VS RPI 51-100: 3-3
VS RPI 101-150: 6-1
VS RPI 151-199: 2-0
VS RPI 200+: 11-0
VS Division II Teams: 1-0

Current Projections:

Joe Lunardi, ESPN:

Midwest Region #8 Wichita State VS #9 Butler - Des Moines, IA

Jerry Palm, CBS Sports:

First four out (Michigan, George Washington, Monmouth)

Wichita State isn't your average bubble team. They've become a household name over the last several years, and you almost just expect them to make the field. The Shockers haven't missed a tournament since 2011, and haven't gone winless in one since 2012. That includes a Final Four run in 2013. They had a strange year though, getting off to a 4-5 start through mid-December. However, from there, they closed the season with a 19-2 record and they've won 19 of their last 22, including their Missouri Valley Conference tournament loss to Northern Iowa. You won't often see such a high number of losses on a team's highlight list, but that was done to show the quality of schedule the Shockers played. Their tough schedule was the reason for their slow start. While they came up short against the upper-tier competition on their schedule, Wichita State played close in all of those games, except the one against Iowa. So while they weren't compiling wins, their losses weren't hurting them too badly. In fact, none of their losses did. Their worst loss on the season was to Illinois State, a top-120 team. While the Shockers still have to be concerned about the upcoming conference tournaments this week, they have a rock-solid resume, and things are looking good as of now.

In a perfect world, Monmouth, Wichita State, and Valparaiso would all make the field of 68, but the NCAA Tournament is anything but a perfect world. However, I'd be shocked if at least two of these teams didn't get into the big dance. Wichita State is the closest thing to a lock among the three of them, so it could come down to Monmouth and Valpo, which is really a shame because they both deserve to be there, but history tells us that something crazy could happen this week, shrinking the field even further.

If it comes down to Monmouth and Valpo, the selection committee will have to decide if Monmouth's big wins are enough to overlook their bad losses, and if a consistently good team, like Valpo, isn't a better fit for this tournament.

In the past few weeks, I've felt good about Monmouth's chances should they lose in the MAAC Tournament. Now that they have, uncertainty has crept in. Perhaps my nerves are up because the field is shrinking before our eyes, but I think the emergence of Valparaiso as a bubble has something to do with it too. The Crusaders are a good team that I expected to win their league. Now as I size them up with Monmouth, I just see them as having the tiniest edge. And not to beat a dead horse, but it comes back to the Hawks' bad losses. Everyone is entitled to a bad day, but three? It's too much for a bubble team to bear. That's why I put Valparaiso as a slight favorite over Monmouth for an at-large bid.

If this analysis upsets you, there's good news: none of it matters come Sunday. The committee has their own set of standards, and far more often than not, they've gotten it right over the years, so I'll trust their judgement.

If you're a fan of Wichita State, Monmouth, or Valparaiso, the bad news is that it's only Monday and you've got another six days of anxiety-filled speculation ahead of you. I would advise you to find something constructive to do with your time. It's out of your hands now.

The reality of March madness is that bubbles will burst on selection Sunday. Will Monmouth, Wichita State, or Valparaiso be among them? You'll have to wait and see.