The Monday Morning Quarterback: MAAC Hoops

Showing posts with label MAAC Hoops. Show all posts

08 March, 2016

Monmouth Is Officially On The Bubble

The Iona Gaels were all smiles after knocking off Monmouth in MAAC championship game, and punching their ticket to the NCAA Tournament, Monday night in Albany, NY. [Photo: SB Nation]

March 8, 2016
Peter Solari Follow @4PeteSakeNY

West Long Branch, NJ - The Monmouth Hawks (27-7) blew a golden opportunity on Monday night, falling to Iona (22-10) 79-76 in the championship game of the MAAC Tournament in Albany, NY. The Hawks will now have to wait until Sunday to see if the NCAA Tournament selection committee will grace them with an invitation to the big dance. Otherwise, Monmouth is headed for the less-heralded National Invitation Tournament.

Making matters worse for the Hawks are Valparaiso (26-6) and Wichita State (24-8), two more mid-major squads on the bubble, who lost in their league tournaments. The good news for Monmouth is that ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi, who is highly respected in the field, still has the Hawks as a #11-seed in the tournament field, though he's got them traveling to Dayton for a First Four game. That should come as no surprise. Should Monmouth make the tournament, they'll likely be one of the last teams in, so an opening round game is very possible for the Hawks. CBS Sports bracketologist Jerry Palm, on the other hand, now projects Monmouth as one of the "last four out," and it's still only Monday. We've got another week of this ahead!

These are the things that can happen when you're a mid-major on the bubble. Especially if the league you play in holds it's conference tournament early, like the MAAC does. None of the high-majors and many of the mid-majors haven't even started their tournaments yet. The field could continue to get shaken up for another week. That's why teams like Monmouth have to take care of business in their league tournaments.

The Monday Morning Quarterback has been covering the possibility of this happening for a couple of weeks now. See "Monmouth On The Bubble Part I" and "Monmouth On The Bubble Part II" for more on that.

Today, we'll take a look at Valparaiso and Wichita State to see how the Hawks stack up against those teams, and hopefully give you a better understanding of what is going on here. First, we'll take a look at Monmouth's updated resume (All stats are compiled by RealTimeRPI. Since RPIs are constantly changing, the values portrayed were accurate at the time of this post.):

Monmouth Hawks: 27-7 (17-3 1st, MAAC), RPI: 53, SOS: 164, Coach: King Rice

NCAA Tournament teams
Expected NCAA Tournament teams

Schedule Highlights:

W @ UCLA (RPI: 98)
W VS USC (RPI: 45) - Neutral site
W VS #17 Notre Dame (RPI: 37) - Neutral site
W @ Siena (RPI: 103)

W VS Siena (RPI: 103)

W @ Georgetown (RPI: 104)
L @ USC (RPI: 46)
L VS Dayton (RPI: 21) - Neutral site
W @ Iona (RPI: 86)

L VS Iona (RPI: 86)
L VS Iona (RPI: 86) - MAAC Final

Schedule Lowlights:

L @ Canisius (RPI: 222)
L @ Army (RPI: 212)
L @ Manhattan (RPI: 226)

Summary:

VS RPI Top 50: 2-2
VS RPI 51-100: 2-2
VS RPI 101-150: 6-0
VS RPI 151-199: 1-0
VS RPI 200+: 16-3

Current Projections:

Joe Lunardi, ESPN:

Last four in
West Region: #11 Monmouth VS #11 Syracuse (First Four) - Dayton, OH

Winner to face #6 Wisconsin in Providence, RI

Jerry Palm, CBS Sports:

"First four out" (Michigan, George Washington, Wichita State)

With all that's come to light, this is still a very impressive resume for Monmouth, but far from a "lock" to make the tournament. They'll be in the discussion right up until selection Sunday, but it could really go either way from there. Those three unsightly losses to Canisius, Army, and Manhattan stick out like a sore thumb and are sure to be hot topics of discussion among the selection committee. Also, Monmouth is sharing the bubble with two very good teams in Valparaiso and Wichita State, and there's still so much more basketball to be played. It's a toss-up for Monmouth as of right now.

Next we'll take a look at the Valparaiso Crusaders from the Horizon League. The Crusaders and Hawks could very easily end up battling each other for one of, if not the, last spot in the field of 68.

Valparaiso Crusaders: 26-6 (16-2 1st, Horizon), RPI: 51, SOS: 163, Coach: Bryce Drew

NCAA Tournament teams

Expected NCAA Tournament teams

Teams on the bubble

Schedule Highlights:

W @ Oregon State (RPI: 30)
W VS IPFW (RPI: 61)
W VS Iona (RPI: 86) - Neutral site
W @ Rhode Island (RPI: 106)
W VS Belmont (RPI: 97)

L @ Belmont (RPI: 97)

W @ Oakland (RPI: 115)

W VS Oakland (RPI: 115)

L @ Oregon (RPI: 4)

Schedule Lowlights:

L @ Ball State (RPI: 157)
L VS Wright State (RPI: 147)

L @ Wright State (RPI: 147)

Summary:

VS RPI Top 50: 1-1
VS RPI 51-100: 3-1
VS RPI 101-150: 5-3
VS RPI 151-199: 5-1
VS RPI 200+: 10-0
VS NAIA Teams: 2-0

Current Projections:

Joe Lunardi, ESPN:

Next four out (Michigan, Ohio State, George Washington)

Jerry Palm, CBS Sports:

Looking at Valparaiso's resume, you see another very good mid-major program. You may remember Valparaiso from the 1998 NCAA Tournament. At the time, their head coach was Homer Drew, and his son, Bryce, hit an improbable buzzer-beating three-pointer that sealed the #13-seed Crusaders victory over #4 Mississippi State. Here's a look back:

The younger Drew, who provided us with that "one shining moment," is now in his fifth season as head coach of the Valparaiso program, and he and his Crusaders are once again knocking on March's door. Though their record of 26-6 is a little deceiving because it includes two games against NAIA schools, Valparaiso would be good enough for the tournament at 24-6. Their non-conference record isn't quite as strong as Monmouth's, but it's not too shabby, and they benefit from having played in a pretty good Horizon League, which featured a number of top-150 teams. What instantly separates Valpo from Monmouth is, again, those three bad losses the Hawks had. Valpo's worst losses aren't even that bad, with only one coming outside of the top-150, and none lower than 157. Because of that, Valpo may have a stronger argument than Monmouth.

Now, we'll take a look at our final team, the Wichita State Shockers out of the Missouri Valley Conference.

Wichita State Shockers: 24-8 (16-2, 1st MVC), RPI: 47, SOS: 105, Coach: Gregg Marshall

NCAA Tournament teams

Expected NCAA Tournament teams
Teams on the bubble

Schedule Highlights:

W VS #25 Utah (RPI: 9) - Neutral site
W @ Evansville (RPI: 94)

W VS Evansville (RPI: 94)

W @ Northern Iowa (RPI: 71)

L VS Northern Iowa (RPI: 71)
L VS Northern Iowa (RPI: 71) - Missouri Valley tournament.

L @ Tulsa (RPI: 48)
L VS USC (RPI: 46) - Neutral site
L VS Iowa (RPI: 23) - Neutral site
L VS Alabama (RPI: 75)
L @ Seton Hall (RPI: 32)

Season Lowlights:

L @ Illinois State (RPI: 117)

Summary:

VS RPI Top 50: 1-4
VS RPI 51-100: 3-3
VS RPI 101-150: 6-1
VS RPI 151-199: 2-0
VS RPI 200+: 11-0
VS Division II Teams: 1-0

Current Projections:

Joe Lunardi, ESPN:

Midwest Region #8 Wichita State VS #9 Butler - Des Moines, IA

Jerry Palm, CBS Sports:

First four out (Michigan, George Washington, Monmouth)

Wichita State isn't your average bubble team. They've become a household name over the last several years, and you almost just expect them to make the field. The Shockers haven't missed a tournament since 2011, and haven't gone winless in one since 2012. That includes a Final Four run in 2013. They had a strange year though, getting off to a 4-5 start through mid-December. However, from there, they closed the season with a 19-2 record and they've won 19 of their last 22, including their Missouri Valley Conference tournament loss to Northern Iowa. You won't often see such a high number of losses on a team's highlight list, but that was done to show the quality of schedule the Shockers played. Their tough schedule was the reason for their slow start. While they came up short against the upper-tier competition on their schedule, Wichita State played close in all of those games, except the one against Iowa. So while they weren't compiling wins, their losses weren't hurting them too badly. In fact, none of their losses did. Their worst loss on the season was to Illinois State, a top-120 team. While the Shockers still have to be concerned about the upcoming conference tournaments this week, they have a rock-solid resume, and things are looking good as of now.

In a perfect world, Monmouth, Wichita State, and Valparaiso would all make the field of 68, but the NCAA Tournament is anything but a perfect world. However, I'd be shocked if at least two of these teams didn't get into the big dance. Wichita State is the closest thing to a lock among the three of them, so it could come down to Monmouth and Valpo, which is really a shame because they both deserve to be there, but history tells us that something crazy could happen this week, shrinking the field even further.

If it comes down to Monmouth and Valpo, the selection committee will have to decide if Monmouth's big wins are enough to overlook their bad losses, and if a consistently good team, like Valpo, isn't a better fit for this tournament.

In the past few weeks, I've felt good about Monmouth's chances should they lose in the MAAC Tournament. Now that they have, uncertainty has crept in. Perhaps my nerves are up because the field is shrinking before our eyes, but I think the emergence of Valparaiso as a bubble has something to do with it too. The Crusaders are a good team that I expected to win their league. Now as I size them up with Monmouth, I just see them as having the tiniest edge. And not to beat a dead horse, but it comes back to the Hawks' bad losses. Everyone is entitled to a bad day, but three? It's too much for a bubble team to bear. That's why I put Valparaiso as a slight favorite over Monmouth for an at-large bid.

If this analysis upsets you, there's good news: none of it matters come Sunday. The committee has their own set of standards, and far more often than not, they've gotten it right over the years, so I'll trust their judgement.

If you're a fan of Wichita State, Monmouth, or Valparaiso, the bad news is that it's only Monday and you've got another six days of anxiety-filled speculation ahead of you. I would advise you to find something constructive to do with your time. It's out of your hands now.

The reality of March madness is that bubbles will burst on selection Sunday. Will Monmouth, Wichita State, or Valparaiso be among them? You'll have to wait and see.

Monmouth Takes On Iona For MAAC's Auto Bid

The Monday Morning Quarterback 5:52 PM

Photo: ESPN

March 7, 2016

Peter Solari Follow @4PeteSakeNY

Albany, NY - Monmouth will meet Iona with the MAAC championship on the line, tonight at 7 PM at the Times Union Center in Albany, NY. The game will be televised nationally by ESPN. Preview the game here.

Monmouth is 1-1 against Iona this season, including a rout several weeks ago in West Long Branch. The Hawks resume has slipped a bit since then, making tonight's game that much more important for them.

Should Monmouth lose tonight's final, they will still be in contention for an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament. In fact, they already are. If Iona loses, they will be no better than an NIT team.

There's no new speculation or fresh scenarios to consider, at least for right now. We'll definitely know more in a few hours, but a ton of questions may remain unanswered. Stay tuned.

ALSO SEE:

Asbury Park Press: King Rich Believes MAAC Final Will Be Monmouth's Hardest Game.

Monmouth Cruises To MAAC Final

The Monday Morning Quarterback 7:49 PM

Photo: Bleacher Report

March 6, 2016
Peter Solari Follow @4PeteSakeNY

Albany, NY - The Monmouth Hawks (27-6) are just one away from the big dance after knocking off Fairfield (19-13) 76-63 in the first MAAC semifinal on Sunday at the Times Union Center in Albany. Monmouth will face the winner of the matchup between second seeded Iona (20-10) and third seeded Siena (21-11), which will take place Sunday night.

Fairfield led for most of the first half in Sunday's game, but never took control of the game. A Jerome Segura three pointer gave the Stags an eight point advantage with 6:13 left in the half, led by nine seconds later, but the Hawks took over after that.

A three-pointer by junior guard Josh James with 5:33 left to play got Monmouth to within six points at 30-24. From there, junior guard Justin Robinson and sophomore guard Austin Tilghman led the Hawks on an 18-6 run to close out the half and Monmouth took a 42-36 lead into halftime. Robinson contributed five points, one rebound, and a steal in the final 5:10, while Tilghman added four points and freshman forward Diago Quinn had two points, one steal, and one rebound, in that span. Freshman guard Micah Seaborn also hit a clutch three in the run.

The six-point differential at halftime was as close as Fairfield would get as Monmouth dominated the second half, and led by as much as 23 points for a portion of it. The teams were actually fairly even on paper, but the Hawks shot 44% for the game, including 37% from beyond the arc, and it was just too much for the Stags to overcome. Seaborn led the way for Monmouth with 17 points, 3 assists, and 1 steal. Robinson added 15 points, 9 rebounds, 4 assists, and 2 steals, and Tilghman finished with 10 points, 4 rebounds, and 2 assists.

Iona and Siena will meet at 7 PM on Sunday night in Albany in the second semifinal, which can be seen on ESPN3. Monmouth will meet the winner of that game in the MAAC championship on Monday night at 7 PM. That game will be broadcast nationally by ESPN.

Monday night's MAAC championship could be a huge for the Hawks. It appears as if Monmouth could fall just short of the big dance should they lose Monday's MAAC final. But there's certainly no reason to panic, yet. Monmouth has complete control of their own destiny, and a win Monday will make for an easy upcoming week for all those faithful to the Hawks.

Monmouth is a hot topic of conversation these days in sports media. Bleacher Report has them featured in two stories right now. Featured columnist Jake Curtis placed the hawks at #6 on his list of "Best (15) Teams That Could Miss March Madness If They Don't Win Conference Tournament," while featured columnist Brian Pedersen included them on his list of "10 Teams built to Bust Brackets in the 2016 NCAA Tournament."

Monmouth can end all speculation about the NCAA Tournament, other than seeding and opponent, with a win on Monday night. If not, they're in for a long week ahead.

Monmouth To Meet Fairfield In MAAC Semifinal Sunday

The Monday Morning Quarterback 2:26 PM

Photo: Bleacher Report

March 6, 2016
Peter Solari Follow @4PeteSakeNY

Albany, NY - Monmouth cruised to a victory 59-48 victory over Rider in the quarterfinals of the MAAC tournament on Friday night, moving one step closer to qualifying for an automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament later this month. You can read more about that game at USA Today. Top seeded Monmouth (26-6) will play fifth seeded Fairfield (19-12) in Sunday's semifinal.

Friday's victory is good news for the Hawks, especially if you believe some of the latest projections. Both ESPN's Joe Lunardi and CBS Sports' Jerry Palm are still projecting Monmouth to be an 11-seed in the NCAA Tournament, but both are assuming that the Hawks will win the MAAC championship. And they may have to or things may get interesting in the upcoming week.

Here is Monmouth's resume, as tweeted by ESPN on Friday:

However, Bleacher Report has Monmouth's stock "down" in their l atest projection. Monmouth has some great wins on their resume, there's no doubt about that. But they've got some pretty bad losses, too, and those can't just be overlooked.

At the end of the day, Monmouth is good enough for the NCAA Tournament, but with most leagues having not even started their conference tournaments yet, a lot could happen to shake things up in the next week, and if you're the Hawks, why leave anything to chance? It remains in coach King Rice and his Monmouth squad's best interest to bring everything they've got in the MAAC tournament, and to let the selection committee argue about other bubble teams like Michigan or Gonzaga.

Monmouth will take the court against Fairfield in the MAAC semifinal on Sunday at 4:30 PM in Albany, New York. You can watch the game live at ESPN3.com and heard on the Shore Sports Network.

Monmouth On The Bubble Part II: How The Hawks Stack Up Historically

The Monday Morning Quarterback 1:22 AM

Photo: Monmouth University Athletics

March 2, 2016
Peter Solari Follow @4PeteSakeNY

"Monmouth on the Bubble" is a two part series examining the Monmouth University men's basketball team's rise to national relevance. Part I focused on the Hawks' move from the Northeast Conference to the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference in 2013, and the impact it's had on the program. Part II will analyze how the 2016 Monmouth Hawks compare to similar teams of the past, more specifically, mid-major programs who ultimately received at-large invitations to the NCAA Tournament. Statistics are courtesy of RealTimeRPI.

PART II: HOW THE HAWKS STACK UP HISTORICALLY

From where I'm sitting, the Monmouth Hawks have already done enough to secure their invitation to the NCAA Tournament, but my opinion isn't worth squat on selection Sunday. That's why the team can make life easy on themselves and their fans, by winning the MAAC tournament, which gets under way later this week in Albany, New York. Monmouth has clinched the league's regular season title along with a birth to the NIT at the very least. The Hawks will open the MAAC tournament against either Rider (12-19) or Quinnipiac (9-20) in Friday's quarterfinals. Monmouth enters the game winners of 11 out of their last 12 games.

Should something unexpectedly go wrong, and Monmouth is knocked out of the MAAC tournament early, the Hawks will instantly be moved to the proverbial "bubble," and in the process, will have subjected themselves to a week of agonizing uncertainty.

It's not easy to gauge a mid-major program like Monmouth as a "bubble team," especially this early in the game. The MAAC is only expected to get one team into the big dance this year, and the experts are projecting Monmouth to be that team. There isn't much talk of the Hawks' chances at an at-large bid because everyone is expecting them to win their league's auto-bid. But they don't call it March "madness" for nothing. What makes this time of year so much fun, is watching the improbable happening. Anything can happen on any given night, and Monmouth may land on the bubble sooner than later.

Monmouth is at a bit of a disadvantage because the MAAC holds their tournament so early. When the MAAC crowns it's champion, most other leagues' tournaments, including those of high-majors, will not have even started yet. If Monmouth doesn't win the MAAC, they will likely have to endure several shakeups to the NCAA Tournament field, while they wait to hear their fate on selection Sunday. And there's nothing they can do about it but sit and watch.

It really isn't that uncommon for a school to enter their conference tournament with no shot at making the big dance, only to go on a magical run to their league's auto-bid. Such a scenario happened in 2008 when Georgia was a league worst 4-12 in the Southeastern Conference (SEC) during the regular season, and ran through the field in March to "steal" the league's auto-bid. When things like that happen, teams such as Georgia ultimately shrink the NCAA Tournament field. At the end of the day, only 68 teams can make it, and now they've got to make room for a team like Georgia, too. If you're a fan of a team on the bubble, watching something like that can understandably Sitting on the bubble is a grueling process and should that come to fruition, it will be one of the longest weeks in every Monmouth fan's life. I say this from experience.

I was a student at George Mason in 2006. I was in the Richmond Coliseum when Hofstra knocked Mason out of the Colonial Athletic Association (CAA) tournament, just as I was in New York less than two weeks earlier, when Hofstra beat the then-#25 Patriots. Like the MAAC, the CAA holds their tournament earlier than most, so getting knocked out meant a week of waiting. That season, there was a lot of speculation that the CAA would be a two-bid league, but they had three potential candidates including UNC-Wilmington, who won the auto-bid, as well as Hoftsta and Mason. Side-by-side, Mason's and Hofstra's tournament resumes were pretty comparable, and Hofstra did have those two, big late-season wins over the Patriots. It was a nerve-wracking time to say the least. For most of the week leading up to selection Sunday, ESPN's bracketologist, Joe Lunardi, had the Patriots on the outside looking in. On selection Sunday morning, in his final analysis before the field was revealed, Lunardi prophetically moved Mason to one of the "last four in" the big dance. It was made official later that evening and the rest, as they say, is history.

Waiting on the bubble is a place no team, or fan, wants to be. However, when only 68 teams get in, it's will inevitably to some programs every year. If you're a fan of the Hawks, you should have full confidence in coach King Rice having his team ready to play in Albany. However, should they slip up, maybe we can put a few Hawks' fans minds at ease by comparing this year's Monmouth squad, to mid-majors of the past, who earned at-large bids, and made the most of their opportunities in the tournament. First we'll take a look at Monmouth's resume for the season.

2015-16 Monmouth Hawks: 25-6 (17-3 MAAC), RPI: 52, SOS: 177, Coach: King Rice, NCAA Tournament: TBD

Expected NCAA Tournament teams

Schedule Highlights:

W @ UCLA (RPI: 82)
W VS USC (RPI: 43) - Neutral site
W VS #17 Notre Dame (RPI: 30) - Neutral site
W @ Siena (RPI: 97)

W VS Siena (RPI: 97)

W @ Georgetown (RPI: 105)
L @ USC (RPI: 43)
L VS Dayton (RPI: 25) - Neutral site

Schedule Lowlights

L @ Canisius (RPI: 226)
L @ Army (RPI: 203)
L @ Manhattan (RPI: 229)

Summary

VS RPI Top 50: 2-2
VS RPI 51-100: 3-0
VS RPI 101-150: 4-1
VS RPI 151-199: 1-0
VS RPI 200+: 15-3

This is a very impressive schedule for a mid-major and kudos to coach Rice and his staff for putting it together. The problem for Monmouth, however, is that every one of their "quality" wins, has an equally unimpressive loss to match. If the Hawks had taken care of business in those three bad road losses, they would be a lock for the tournament, with a record of 28-3 (19-1 MAAC), with their only losses coming to Dayton, USC, and Iona (RPI: 106). If that were the case, they'd probably be in the top 25 right now. It's not all bad news for Monmouth. While RealTimeRPI only counts the games against Notre Dame and USC as "quality wins," the victory over UCLA in Los Angeles, should definitely work in the Hawks' favor, and the win at Georgetown is nothing to scoff at. Two wins against Siena doesn't hurt either. Altogether, Monmouth should have enough here to get a nod from the selection committee, but they're not a lock yet, because a lot could happen in the conference tournaments and the potential of a shake-up in the projected field. Monmouth failed to make life easy on themselves earlier in the year with some bad losses to bad teams. We'll see if they can avoid that this time around and win the MAAC's auto-bid. If they don't, it will be an interesting week at the Jersey Shore.

Now we'll take a look at some other mid-majors in recent history who got invited to the big dance, and took the country by storm. We'll go in reverse chronological order. All of these teams received at-large bids to the tournament, and came from mid-major conferences.

2012-13 Wichita State Shockers: 26-8 (12-6 Missouri Valley), RPI: 37, SOS: 91, Coach: Gregg Marshall, NCAA Tournament: #9 Seed.

NCAA Tournament teams

Schedule Highlights

W VS #12 Creighton (RPI: 24)

L @ Creighton (RPI: 24)
L VS. Creighton (RPI: 24) - Conference final

W @ VCU (RPI: 25)
W VS Iowa (RPI: 81) - Neutral site
W @ Air Force (RPI: 79)
W VS Southern Mississippi (RPI: 31)
W VS Northern Iowa (RPI: 83)

L @ Northern Iowa (RPI: 83)

W @ Indiana State (RPI: 72)

L VS Indiana State (RPI: 72)

W VS Detroit (RPI: 64)
L @ Tennessee (RPI: 59)

Schedule Lowlights

L @ Southern Illinois (RPI: 193)

Summary

VS Top 50 RPI: 3-2
VS RPI 51-100: 5-3
VS RPI 101-150: 6-2
VS RPI 151-199: 5-1
VS RPI 200+: 7-0

NCAA Tournament, #9 Seed (All neutral site games):

Round of 64 W VS #8 Pittsburgh
Round of 32: W VS # 1 Gonzaga
Sweet 16: W VS #13 LaSalle
Elite Eight: W VS #2 Ohio State
Final Four: L VS #1 Louisville

This probably isn't a fair comparison for Monmouth. Wichita State came out of a very good conference in the Missouri Valley. There was never any doubt that the Shockers, as well as conference-mate Creighton, were going to be a tournament and you can see why. When you have eight top-100 wins and only one bad loss to Southern Illinois, which really wasn't all that bad, anyway, you're going to get into the field of 68. Not to mention, the Shockers were somewhere between #15 and #23 in the top-25 poll for much of the season. All the work Wichita State put into the season only yielded them a #9-seed, so this just goes to show how unforgiving the tournament committee can be. Monmouth isn't fighting for a #9-seed anyway. Most projections (which assume Monmouth will win the MAAC tournament, putting their record at 28-6) have them more in the area of #11. A #11-seed would be a great accomplishment for the Hawks. #11s have been known to do some damage in the NCAA Tournament, as you will soon see.

2010-11 VCU Rams: 23-11 (12-6 CAA), RPI: 49, SOS: 85, Coach: Shaka Smart, NCAA Tournament: #11 Seed (First Four).

NCAA Tournament teams

Schedule Highlights:

W @ UCLA (RPI: 44)
W @ Wichita State: (RPI: 60)
W VS #25 George Mason (RPI: 24) - CAA Tournament

L VS George Mason (RPI: 24)

W @ Old Dominion (RPI: 20)

L VS Old Dominion (RPI: 20)
L VS Old Dominion (RPI: 20) - CAA Tournament

W VS Wofford (RPI: 109)
W @ UAB (RPI: 31)
W @ Drexel (RPI: 74)

W VS Drexel (RPI: 74) - CAA Tournament

L VS Tennessee (RPI: 33)
L @ Richmond (RPI: 41)

Schedule Lowlights:

L @ Georgia State (RPI: 223)
L @ Northeastern (RPI: 178)

Summary:

VS RPI Top 50: 3-6
VS RPI 51-100: 5-2
VS RPI 101-150: 2-0
VS RPI: 151-199: 1-2
VS RPI 200+: 12-1

NCAA Tournament, #11 Seed (All neutral site games):

First Four: W VS #11 USC
Round of 64: W VS #6 Georgetown
Round of 32: W VS #3 Purdue
Sweet 16: W VS #10 Florida State
Elite Eight: W VS #1 Kansas
Final Four: L VS #8 Butler

As someone who follows CAA basketball, I was actually quite shocked and impressed at VCU's resume in 2011. Like Wichita State in 2013, the Rams came out of very good league this year. The CAA was actually a three-bid league in 2011 as VCU was joined by fellow Virginia schools George Mason and Old Dominion. VCU put in some serious work in 2011 and they should be commended. Monmouth fans should also take notice of something about this team. The tournament takes a serious look at a candidates record against top-100 RPI teams. Top-100 wins add quite a bit of value to tournament resumes, and better yet, losses to top-100 teams won't kill either. Even wins against top-150 teams have value, though losses to them can be damaging too. In 2013, VCU was 8-8 against top-100 teams. This season, Monmouth is 5-2 against them, and 9-3 against top-150 teams. In those 12 games, only one of the Hawks' losses came to a team outside of the top-100. Furthermore, notice VCU's three losses to teams with RPIs higher than 150. Monmouth's bad losses are worse than VCU's in 2011, but this shows that bad losses aren't always hurtful as they may seem, because most other teams have them too. 2011 was the first year the field was expanded to 68 and VCU obviously benefited from that as they were sent to the First Four. If Monmouth was to obtain an at-large bid to the tournament, a First Four game might very well be in their future.

2005-06 George Mason Patriots: 23-7 (15-3 CAA), RPI: 27, SOS: 89, Coach: Jim Larranaga, NCAA: #11 Seed.

NCAA Tournament teams

Schedule Highlights:

W @ Wichita State (RPI: 19)
W VS UNC-Wilmington (RPI: 28)

L @ UNC-Wilmington (RPI: 28)

W VS Old Dominion (RPI: 66)

L @ Old Dominion (RPI: 66)

W VS VCU (RPI: 81)

W @ VCU (RPI: 81)

W @ Manhattan (RPI: 86)
W @ Northeastern (RPI: 89)

W VS Northeastern (89)

W VS Hampton (RPI: 284)
L VS #18 Wake Forest (RPI: 84)
L VS Creighton (RPI: 41)
L @ Hofstra (RPI: 22)

L VS Hofstra (RPI: 22) - CAA Tournament

Schedule Lowlights:

L @ Mississippi State (RPI: 113)

Summary

VS RPI Top 50: 2-4
VS RPI 51-100: 6-2
VS RPI 101-150: 2-1
VS RPI 151-199: 2-0
VS RPI 200+: 11-0

NCAA Tournament, #11 Seed (All neutral site games):

Round of 64: W VS #6 Michigan State
Round of 32: W VS #3 North Carolina
Sweet 16: W VS #7 Wichita State
Elite Eight: W VS #1 Connecticut
Final Four: L VS #3 Florida

Here is a team that is pretty comparable to this year's Monmouth squad. It's also a team I hold near and dear to my heart, but that's beside the point. Like the previous two teams we've looked at, George Mason came out of a really good league in 2006. The CAA had two teams in the NCAA Tournament (one in the Final Four) and two teams in the final four of the NIT. Not too shabby. Mason also cracked the top-25 near the end of the year. The MAAC hasn't been as good this season as the CAA was in 2006, side-by-side, the '06 Patriots and this year's Hawks are a pretty good comparison. Mason was 10-8 vs the top-150 that season, while Monmouth is 9-3. The Hawks' quality are more impressive than George Mason's were that year as well. Mason was probably a more battle-tested team than Monmouth is, but if you're a Hawks fan, this comparison has to make you optimistic about your team's chances.

1994-95 Manhattan Jaspers: 25-4 (12-2 MAAC), RPI: 50, SOS: 200, Coach: Fran Fraschilla, NCAA Tournament: #13 seed.

NCAA Tournament teams

[Note: These stats were compiled by CollegeRPI.]

Schedule Highlights:

W VS Eastern Michigan (RPI: 69)
W @ Florida International (RPI: 227)
W VS Colgate (RPI: 122)
W VS Rutgers (RPI: 104)
W VS St. Peter's (RPI: 100)

W @ St. Peter's (RPI: 100)
L VS St. Peter's (RPI 100)

W @ Canisius (RPI: 88)

L VS Canisius (RPI: 88)

L VS #25 St. John's (RPI: 78)

Season Lowlights:

L @ Iona (RPI: 254)

Summary:

VS RPI Top 50: 0-0
VS RPI 51-100: 4-3
VS RPI 101-150: 4-0
VS RPI 151-199: 5-0
VS RPI 200+: 12-1

NCAA Tournament, #13 Seed:

Round of 64: W VS #4 Oklahoma
Round of 32: L VS #5 Arizona State

Unlike the other three teams we've looked at, the 1995 Manhattan Jaspers didn't make it to the tournament's final weekend. In fact, they didn't make it out of the first weekend. But that doesn't mean they didn't leave their mark. More importantly, they were a team from the MAAC who used the same formula to get this far, that Monmouth has used this season. They won some top-100 games, took care of the bad teams on their schedule, and dominated play within their league. While the Jaspers didn't have as many bad losses as Monmouth, their quality wins don't compare with the Hawks', and Monmouth played a better schedule too. Hopefully, this has Monmouth fans feeling good about their team. The MAAC has pulled out two-bid seasons in the past, and I'm confident they'll do it again should they need to.

As I finished writing this, I realized that I probably haven't eased the minds of many Monmouth faithful, but it's still fun to compare teams from the past, isn't it?

Every season is different, so ultimately history won't matter on selection Sunday. But if you were wondering if Monmouth was good enough to make the NCAA Tournament, the answer is a resounding yes. Now, we'll have to wait to see if it actually happens.

Seasons like the one we're experiencing this year, where no team has been truly dominant, have worked out well for mid-majors, both in terms of getting into the tournament, and busting brackets once they arrive. There's no reason 2016 can't be like that, too.

I'd like to leave you all with one final thought of superstition. The NCAA Tournament field expanded to 64 teams in 1985. Since then, every tournament in a year ending in the number six, has produced some rather unpredictable results. In 1986, the #11-seed LSU Tigers beat Purdue, Memphis, Georgia Tech, and Kentucky on their way to the Final Four. In 1996, coach John Calipari and Marcus Camby lead Massachusetts, out of the Atlantic 10, to the Final Four. Granted, the Minutemen were a very good team and were a #1-seed. However, it's not easy for anyone outside of the power conferences to navigate the tournament field, even as a #1-seed. Just ask Gonzaga. A decade after UMass reached the Final Four, #11-seed George Mason made their mark on college basketball (see above). Now it's 2016, and who knows what lies ahead? Could we be in for another wild tournament? Why not? And why not Monmouth, whether they win the MAAC tournament title or not?

Stay connected to The Monday Morning Quarterback for coverage of Monmouth's run through the MAAC tournament and of all the other conference tournament action.